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Risk Assessor

This software program was designed to assist end-users in making the right Risk-Based Decisions. It was not designed to replace your current decision-making process. It was meant to supplement, and give credence to your existing decision-making process.

Our software application is based on the well-established principles of “Fuzzy Logic” developed in the 1960s.  Although fuzzy logic is quite common in engineering applications, it is not widely used in the business and financial sectors.

We aim to address these market segments which have historically used highly complex and awkward “statistical models” in their decision making process.

We have developed a unique and proprietary software application to help business professionals make better, faster, and more consistent decisions.  In addition, all elements of the decision making process are recorded for subsequent review and updating.

The Problem

The success of all business enterprises, and in particular those in the financial and investment sectors, is critically dependent on accurate, and timely decisions.  These decisions are often based on large amounts of time-sensitive numerical data.

In the past, statistical methods have been employed to both analyze the numerical data, and attempt to evaluate the risk inherent in various investment strategies.

In many cases, decision makers are overwhelmed with information and resort to making “best guess” decisions based on only a small percentage of the total number of factors, which are actually relevant to the particular decision.

In addition, the factors and variables on which the decision is based are not documented.  After a decision has yielded a particular outcome (good or bad), it is no easy task to go back and review the specific manner in which the decision was actually made.

The Solution

Our proprietary software addresses the problems outlined in the following ways:

Fuzzy logic’s ability to deal with “linguistic variables” such as “Good”, “Very Good”, and “Poor” as opposed to “crisp” numbers, allows the software to more closely emulate the human decision making process which in many cases is not well suited to statistical models.

Our intuitive user interface allows the user to quickly enter data and view the calculated results.

All risk factors relevant to the decision can be loaded into our software so that the decision process is always based on an optimized set of parameters.

All Risk Categories, Risk Factors, Risk Tolerances, Opinions, Sources, and the Reliability of those Sources used in the decision are stored for later recall.

This creates an “audit trail” which can then be reviewed in order to optimize future decision-making.

The Impact

This proprietary software provides corporate decision makers with a rigorous, mathematical approach to decision making.

Because it is based on the well-established principles of “Fuzzy Logic”, it allows for “human” input data in the form of opinions, which are expressed as “linguistic variables”.

Examples of linguistic variables might be opinions such as “very good”, “good”, or “poor”.

The individual or organization providing these opinions could in turn be basing them on actual numerical or “crisp” data, or they could be more intuitive in nature.

The opinions, factors, and criteria can all be customized by the end user to suit their specific applications.

Most statistics-based analytical tools currently in use rely on large amounts of “crisp” numerical data, allowing no room for “soft” input such as human opinion or intuition.

Using this proprietary software provides faster, more accurate, and more consistent decision making which is always based on the same pre-determined set of user defined risk factors and criteria.  By consolidating all the pieces of evidence and entering each one into the software to produce a recommendation/decision, we eliminate errors by removing the need to make decisions “off the cuff”.  The software stores and remembers all the pieces of evidence to be considered, and weighting them appropriately, produces a recommendation/decision factoring in all the available pieces of evidence at once.

Since the software automatically records all factors, criteria, evidence, and date of preparation used in the decision making process, an audit trail is provided for future review.

You can never eliminate risk and stay in business.  Progress always involves risk.  You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first!

Our software allows you to manage your risk to acceptable levels.